Jihadism, State Fragility, and Proxy Wars in the Maghreb and the Sahel: A Transforming Threat

Abstract

This article analyses the transformation of jihadism in the Maghreb and the Sahel, focusing on the relationship between organisational adaptation, state fragility and external intervention. This way, it examines the evolution from the creation of the Algerian Armed Islamic Group (GIA) to the formation of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), the conditions that favour jihadist recruitment, and the dynamics of proxy wars, with special attention to the Libyan case. The analysis argues that the persistence of these organisations is linked to their ability to combine their translational remit with the participation and control in local conflicts, exploiting power vacuums and grievances amongst the population. It also addresses how state abuses and the competence between external powers can facilitate their expansion. Finally, it discusses the implication of these processes for both regional and European security, as well as possible future scenarios and the evolution of the threat.